CMHC's 2026 Housing Forecast for Vancouver: What It Actually Means for Buyers and Sellers

CMHC released their 2026 Housing Market Outlook a few weeks ago, and I have spent considerable time working through the data. Government housing reports tend to be dense and cautiously worded — CMHC has to balance being informative with not spooking the market. So the language is full of terms like “moderate recovery” and “gradual adjustment.” Let me cut through that and tell you what I think this report actually says for anyone trying to make a real estate decision in Vancouver this year.

The headline: 2026 is going to be a year of slow, grinding adjustment. Not a crash. Not a recovery. Just a market trying to find its footing after two years of declining sales and softening prices, while simultaneously dealing with a construction pipeline that is seizing up. Both of those things are happening at once, and they have very different implications depending on whether you are buying, selling, or building.

Sales and Prices: “Marginal Growth” Means Basically Flat

CMHC’s projection for Metro Vancouver resale activity in 2026 is, in their words, marginal growth in both sales volumes and prices. I read that as flat to slightly positive — maybe 2-4% more transactions than 2025, and price growth of 0-3%.

For context, GVR’s February 2026 data showed the composite residential benchmark at $1,100,300, down 6.8% year-over-year. So when CMHC says “marginal growth,” they are saying the bleeding might stop, not that prices are going to bounce back. If you bought a condo for $760,000 in early 2025 and it is now worth $708,200, CMHC is not promising you will get your money back in 2026. They are saying maybe it stabilizes around $710,000-$720,000 by year-end.

This is important for sellers to understand. The temptation when you hear “growth” is to wait for a recovery. But “marginal growth” after a 6.8% decline is not a recovery. It is a pause. If you are planning to sell, do not price your home based on where you think the market is heading. Price it based on where the market is right now.

New Construction: The Pipeline Is Slowing Down

This is the part of the CMHC report that concerns me most, and I think too many people are glossing over it. CMHC projects new home construction trending lower throughout 2026. Housing starts are declining, and the reasons are structural, not cyclical.

Why construction is slowing:

1. Construction costs remain elevated. Materials, labor, and development charges have not come down meaningfully despite the broader market softening. The City of Vancouver’s development cost levy increases alone have added tens of thousands of dollars per unit to new projects.

2. Financing is harder to secure. Banks have tightened lending standards for development projects. When pre-sales are slow and market values are uncertain, lenders want more equity from developers before releasing construction financing.

3. Condo presales have stalled. This is the critical bottleneck. Most condo towers in Vancouver require 60-70% of units to be pre-sold before construction financing kicks in. When buyers are nervous about falling prices, they stop buying presales. When presales stall, projects do not start. CMHC specifically flags this as a concern in their outlook.

4. Projects are being postponed or cancelled outright. I am aware of at least three significant condo projects in Metro Vancouver that have been quietly shelved in the past six months. Developers will not talk about this publicly because it undermines confidence in their other active projects, but it is happening.

The irony is hard to miss. Vancouver desperately needs more housing supply. Every level of government says so. But the market conditions that would make buyers happy — lower prices, less competition — are exactly the conditions that make developers stop building. We are setting ourselves up for a supply crunch in 2028-2029 when today’s cancelled projects would have been delivering units.

Presale Market: Proceed with Extreme Caution

I have written about this before, but CMHC’s report reinforces the warning. The presale condo market in Metro Vancouver is deeply stressed. Buyers who purchased presales in 2022 or 2023 at peak prices are now facing completions where the unit is worth less than what they agreed to pay. Assignment sales are at a loss in many buildings.

CMHC notes that completed and unabsorbed condo inventory is increasing. Translation: developers are finishing buildings and the units are not selling. When you see standing inventory rising in a city that supposedly has a housing shortage, something is fundamentally misaligned between what is being built (primarily small condos targeting investors) and what people actually want to buy (homes they can live in).

For presale buyers right now, I would say this: the deals look tempting. Developers are offering incentives, reduced deposits, free upgrades, assignment fee waivers. But be very careful about the developer’s financial stability, the projected strata fees, and whether the building will actually complete on schedule. Some of these projects are on shaky ground. Do your due diligence thoroughly or speak with someone who can help you evaluate the risk.

Rental Construction: Slowing in the Second Half

CMHC projects purpose-built rental construction will slow in the second half of 2026. This is a direct consequence of the same financing and cost pressures hitting the condo market. Building rental apartments requires patient capital — the payback period is 15-25 years — and with interest rates still elevated, the math has gotten harder for institutional builders.

What does this mean for the rental market? In the short term, not much. Vacancy rates are already rising because of the recent construction boom delivering units, and because net migration to Vancouver is declining (more on that below). But in the medium term — 2028 and beyond — if rental construction drops off while population growth eventually recovers, we will be right back to the ultra-tight rental conditions of 2022-2023.

For investors considering building a multiplex as a rental property, this actually strengthens the long-term case. Small-scale, owner-built rental housing is less sensitive to the development financing pressures that affect large institutional projects. If the big builders pull back, the gap in rental supply could create better returns for smaller operators.

International Migration: A Declining Demand Driver

Here is a factor that does not get enough attention in local market analysis. CMHC’s forecast incorporates declining international migration to Canada, which has been a primary demand driver for Vancouver housing for the past decade.

The federal government has been reducing immigration targets. Temporary resident numbers are declining. International student enrollment, which was a significant source of rental demand in Metro Vancouver, is dropping due to policy changes at the federal level. According to IRCC data, Canada’s net migration is projected to be significantly lower in 2026 than in 2023-2024.

For Vancouver specifically, lower migration means:

• Less pressure on rental demand (contributing to rising vacancies)
• Fewer first-time buyers entering the market
• Reduced demand for the small condos that developers have been building

This is not permanent. Migration policy can change with a single election cycle. But for 2026 and likely 2027, expect migration to be a headwind rather than a tailwind for housing demand.

What This Means If You Are Buying

The CMHC forecast is, on balance, good news for buyers. Here is why:

Prices are not going anywhere fast. Marginal growth means you have time. You do not need to rush into a purchase worried that prices will jump 10% while you deliberate. Take your time, do your inspections, negotiate properly. The urgency that defined 2021-2022 is gone.

Inventory will remain high. With construction still delivering units from projects started in 2022-2023, and resale listings running 37% above the 10-year average (GVR data), you will have options. Lots of options. Use that to your advantage.

Presale deals may get better. As developers struggle to hit presale thresholds, incentives will increase. Just make sure you are buying from a developer who can actually deliver the building.

Interest rate cuts could accelerate your timeline. The Bank of Canada has been cutting rates, and further cuts in 2026 would improve affordability. But rate cuts also bring sidelined buyers back into the market, so there is a tension between waiting for lower rates and acting before competition returns.

My advice: if you find a property you like at a price that works within your budget, buy it. Do not try to time the absolute bottom. Use the current buyer’s market conditions to negotiate hard, include your subject clauses, and secure a property that makes sense for your life. The conditions for doing that are as good as they have been in twenty years.

What This Means If You Are Selling

The CMHC forecast is tougher for sellers, and I will not sugarcoat it.

Price your home based on today’s reality. The February 2026 comparable sales are your benchmark. Not what your neighbour sold for in 2022. Not what you think your renovations are worth. The market sets the price, and the market is soft.

Expect longer days on market. The average listing in Metro Vancouver is taking significantly longer to sell than a year ago. If you need to sell within a specific timeframe — because you have already purchased another property, for example — price aggressively from day one. An overpriced listing that sits for 60 days before a price reduction always sells for less than one that is priced right from the start.

Invest in presentation. In a market where buyers have options, the properties that stand out get shown and sold. Professional photography, staging, minor cosmetic updates — these are not optional right now. They are the difference between selling in 30 days and sitting for 90.

Consider your timing. If you do not absolutely need to sell in 2026, CMHC’s forecast suggests 2027 or 2028 could bring stronger conditions as today’s construction slowdown reduces future supply. But holding means carrying costs, so run those numbers honestly.

The Bigger Picture: A Market in Transition

What I take from CMHC’s 2026 outlook is that Vancouver’s housing market is in a genuine transition period. The boom cycle that ran from roughly 2015 to 2022 (with a brief pandemic pause) is definitively over. What replaces it is likely a slower, more balanced market where prices grow with inflation rather than outpacing it, and where buying a home is an important life decision rather than a speculative bet.

I think that is healthy. I have been selling real estate in this city for twenty years, and the frenzy of the past decade was not normal and was not sustainable. A market where buyers can include inspection conditions, negotiate on price, and take two weeks to make a decision is not a broken market. It is a functional one.

Key Takeaways

• CMHC projects marginal growth in Vancouver sales and prices for 2026 — essentially flat after a 6.8% decline
• New construction starts are trending lower as development economics deteriorate
• The presale condo market is stalled, with more projects postponed or cancelled and unabsorbed inventory rising
• Purpose-built rental construction is expected to slow in H2 2026, potentially creating future supply shortages
• Declining international migration is reducing housing demand pressure in the near term
• Buyers have time, inventory, and leverage — use current conditions to negotiate and buy with proper protections
• Sellers must price to today’s market, not yesterday’s peak, and invest in presentation to stand out

Frequently Asked Questions

Does CMHC think Vancouver home prices will crash in 2026?

No. CMHC’s language is carefully measured, but their projection is not a crash scenario. They expect prices to stabilize with marginal growth after the 6.8% decline recorded over the past year. A crash would imply 15-20%+ declines, which CMHC does not forecast. That said, CMHC has been wrong before — they famously warned about overvaluation in Vancouver for years before prices doubled. I would take their forecast as a reasonable base case while acknowledging significant uncertainty in either direction, especially given trade tensions and global economic instability.

Will stalled presale construction make existing condos more valuable?

Eventually, yes — but not immediately. Right now, the market is dealing with a wave of completions from projects started in 2022-2023. That new supply is competing with existing resale inventory, which is why condo prices have dropped. However, if new project starts keep declining through 2026 as CMHC projects, the supply pipeline will thin out by 2028-2029. Existing condo owners who can hold through the current soft period may benefit from tighter supply conditions in a few years. The question is whether you can afford to wait.

Should I delay my home purchase until 2027 based on CMHC’s forecast?

I would not base a life decision on a government forecast. CMHC’s projections give you a direction of travel, not a precise destination. If the Bank of Canada cuts rates more aggressively than expected, buyer demand could surge well before 2027. If a recession hits, prices could fall further. The one thing I know for certain is that the negotiating conditions in spring 2026 are exceptional. You may get a slightly lower price in 2027, or you may find yourself competing against buyers who re-entered the market when rates dropped. I would rather buy well in a quiet market than fight for scraps in a busy one.

Sources

• CMHC 2026 Housing Market Outlook — British Columbia
• Greater Vancouver Realtors — February 2026 Monthly Statistics
• City of Vancouver — Development Cost Levies
• Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada — Immigration Data

Next Steps: Work with Rain City Properties

Reports and forecasts are useful, but they do not buy or sell homes. If you are trying to figure out what CMHC’s outlook means for your specific situation — whether that is buying your first home, selling a property you have owned for years, or evaluating a multiplex investment — I am happy to walk through the numbers with you.

I have seen more than a few market cycles in Vancouver, and the common thread is that the best decisions come from clear thinking, honest data, and good advice. Not from fear and not from FOMO.

Greyden Douglas Founder, Rain City Properties Phone: (604) 218-2289 Contact us to discuss your real estate plans.