With the fewest home sales in over two decades, record-high inventory, and prices down across every property type, Vancouver buyers have more leverage than they've had since 2019. Here's what the numbers say.
I have been selling real estate in Vancouver for 20 years. In that time, I have watched buyers compete with 15 other offers on a single Kitsilano bungalow, waive every subject under the sun, and still lose. I have watched couples stretch themselves to the point of nausea because they were terrified of being priced out forever.
So when I tell you that 2026 is the most buyer-friendly market I have seen since at least 2019, I want you to understand the weight of that statement. This is not hype. The numbers are clear, and they all point the same direction.
The 2025 Sales Collapse, by the Numbers
Let me start with the headline stat: Metro Vancouver recorded just 23,800 home sales in 2025, according to Greater Vancouver Realtors. That is the lowest annual total in over two decades.
To put it in context:
- Sales fell 10.4% from 2024’s already-sluggish 26,561 transactions
- The total landed 24.7% below the 10-year annual average of 31,625 sales
- Meanwhile, sellers listed 65,335 properties on the MLS, an 8.2% increase from the prior year and the highest listing count since the mid-1990s
That gap between supply and demand is enormous. And it changed the math for anyone looking to buy.
What drove the slowdown?
GVR’s economists pointed to economic uncertainty and U.S. tariff threats as the main culprits. I think there is a simpler explanation too: buyers who could afford to wait, waited. Seven consecutive Bank of Canada rate cuts through 2025 were supposed to unlock demand. Instead, many would-be buyers sat on the sidelines, expecting prices to fall further or hoping for even lower rates.
They got what they wished for on prices. Whether they missed the window on selection is another question.
Where Prices Landed: December 2025 Benchmarks
GVR’s December 2025 stats paint a clear picture. Every property type finished the year lower:
| Property Type | Benchmark Price (Dec 2025) | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Composite (all residential) | $1,114,800 | -4.5% |
| Detached | $1,879,800 | -5.3% |
| Townhouse | $1,056,600 | -5.0% |
| Apartment (condo) | $710,000 | -5.3% |
Source: Greater Vancouver Realtors, December 2025 Monthly Summary
A 5% drop on a $1.9 million detached home is roughly $100,000. On a condo, it is about $40,000. These are not rounding errors. For a buyer putting 20% down, that $100,000 detached price drop translates to about $80,000 less mortgage debt, which saves roughly $450 per month at current rates.
Based on 4.5% rate, 25-year amortization. For illustration only; verify with your mortgage broker.
Inventory: The Real Story
Numbers on a price table are one thing. The feel of the market when you are actually out looking at homes is another.
Right now, there are about 12,550 homes actively for sale across Metro Vancouver. That is 14.6% higher than where we stood at the end of 2024. In my experience selling on the west side, open houses that used to draw 40 groups are getting 8 to 12. Offer nights that used to produce bidding wars are producing one or two offers, sometimes none.
What does this mean practically? It means you can take your time. You can bring subjects. You can negotiate on price. You can ask for repairs. You can put in a subject-to-sale clause without getting laughed out of the room.
I have had three buyers in the past two months get accepted offers with subject to sale conditions on their current home. Try doing that in 2021.
The New Condo Overhang
One segment where inventory is especially acute: newly built condos.
According to Vancouver Sun reporting on MLA Canada data, there were approximately 3,745 completed but unsold new condo units sitting in Metro Vancouver as of Q3 2025, up from about 2,300 at the start of the year. The total number of unsold new condos across all stages (pre-construction through completed) hit roughly 15,000 units by mid-2025, nearly double the 10-year average.
Why? Investors disappeared. They used to buy about half of all presale condos. In 2025, investor participation dropped to around 7%, according to MLA Canada. High carrying costs and negative cash flow made the math untenable.
For end-user buyers, this is a gift. Developers with completed, unsold inventory are offering significant incentives: decorating allowances, strata fee coverage, GST credits. Some are starting to cut prices outright. If you want a brand-new, move-in-ready condo without waiting three years for construction, 2026 is likely the best buying environment you will see for a long time.
Interest Rates: Stable, Not Falling
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on January 28, 2026, the second consecutive hold after seven cuts. The next decision date is March 18, 2026.
My read: rates are probably staying around this level for a while. The BoC cited tariff uncertainty and “structural headwinds” in its January statement. I do not expect any surprise cuts in the spring unless we get hit with an external shock.
For buyers, this is actually fine. Rate stability is better than rate volatility. You can plan. You know what your payments look like. And at 2.25% on the overnight rate, variable-rate mortgages and short-term fixed products are competitive enough to make the numbers work for most purchases.
If you are waiting for sub-2% rates to come back, I think you will be waiting a very long time. And while you wait, the buyer-friendly conditions I am describing here will erode as more people come off the sidelines.
What the Forecasts Say About 2026
BCREA’s Q1 2026 Housing Forecast projects 78,690 residential sales across BC in 2026, a 12% increase over 2025. Provincial average prices are forecast to rise a modest 3% to about $982,800.
Let me translate what that means for Metro Vancouver: more buyers coming back, but not a flood. Inventory is high enough that prices should stay flat or inch up slightly. The market is expected to remain balanced through most of 2026. BCREA’s own chief economist described it as a “slow return to normal.”
That is exactly the environment where a patient, well-advised buyer can find a good deal. You have selection, you have time, and you are not competing against a wall of desperate bidders. By 2027, if BCREA’s projection of 82,450 sales holds, the conditions will have tightened.
Who Should Be Buying Right Now
I am not going to pretend this market is right for everyone. If you are stretching to the absolute limit of what you can afford and betting on prices dropping another 10%, you are speculating. I would not do that.
But if you fall into any of these categories, I think 2026 is genuinely the year to move:
End-user buyers who need a home. You need somewhere to live. The selection is the best it has been in years, prices are off their highs, and you can negotiate. Waiting for a marginally better deal while renting is a bet that rarely pays off over a 5-10 year hold.
Move-up buyers. Yes, you will sell your current place for less than you would have gotten in 2022. But you are also buying your next place at a discount. On a move-up, the dollar savings on the more expensive purchase usually exceeds the loss on the sale. I walk through this math with clients regularly, and it almost always works in the mover’s favour.
Long-term investors. If you are buying to hold for 7-10 years, the entry point matters, and this is one of the better entry points we have seen. Rental demand is not going away. Vancouver is not building enough housing. The structural shortage is real, even if the current cycle has softened prices temporarily.
What I Am Telling My Own Clients
I am telling them the truth: this is a window. Windows close.
The last time Metro Vancouver had conditions this favourable for buyers was 2019, and before that, 2014. Both times, prices dipped, inventory rose, and people hesitated. Both times, prices recovered within 18-24 months. I am not saying history will repeat exactly, but the pattern is hard to ignore.
I am also telling them to be realistic about negotiation. Yes, you have leverage. No, sellers are not giving homes away. A well-priced detached home in Kitsilano or Dunbar still draws interest. But an overpriced condo in a less desirable location? That seller needs you more than you need them. Know the difference.
Key Takeaways
- Metro Vancouver recorded 23,800 home sales in 2025, the fewest in 20+ years, while new listings hit a 30-year high
- Benchmark prices dropped across all property types: composite down 4.5%, detached down 5.3%, condos down 5.3%
- About 3,700+ completed new condos sit unsold, giving buyers leverage and incentives on brand-new inventory
- BCREA projects a 12% sales rebound in 2026 with modest 3% price growth, meaning conditions favour buyers now but may tighten through the year
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Vancouver in a buyers market in 2026?
Yes. Based on GVR’s December 2025 data, the sales-to-active-listings ratio across Metro Vancouver sits below the 15% threshold that typically defines a balanced market. Inventory is 14.6% higher year-over-year, prices are down 4-5% across all property types, and buyers have meaningful negotiating power including the ability to include subjects in offers.
Will Vancouver home prices drop further in 2026?
BCREA’s Q1 2026 forecast projects modest price growth of about 3% across BC. My own expectation is that Metro Vancouver prices will be roughly flat through the first half of 2026, with any movement depending on how quickly sidelined buyers return. Significant further declines are unlikely unless we see a major economic disruption like a full-scale trade war.
Should I wait to buy a home in Vancouver?
That depends entirely on your situation. If you are buying to live in for 5+ years, waiting is a gamble: you save money if prices drop further, but you also risk competing with more buyers as conditions normalize. In my experience, the best time to buy is when you find the right home, you can afford it, and you have the leverage to negotiate well. All three conditions exist right now.
What types of properties are the best deals in 2026?
Completed new condos with unsold standing inventory offer the most negotiating room. Developers carrying completed units face monthly financing and strata costs, which motivates them to deal. In the resale market, overpriced condos that have been sitting for 60+ days are where I am seeing the most flexibility from sellers.
Sources
- Greater Vancouver Realtors - December 2025 Monthly Summary and 2025 Year in Review
- BC Real Estate Association - Q1 2026 Housing Forecast Update, January 28, 2026
- Bank of Canada - Interest Rate Decision, January 28, 2026
- Vancouver Sun / MLA Canada - Metro Vancouver Presale Market Data, 2025
Data sourced February 2026. Market conditions change frequently. Verify current figures before making financial decisions.
Next Steps: Work with Rain City Properties
Buying in a soft market is not just about finding a lower price. It is about knowing where the real opportunities are, what a reasonable offer looks like, and when to push harder. That takes local knowledge and deal experience.
I have been working Vancouver’s west side for 20 years. If you want to understand what your budget can get you in today’s market, or you want to run the numbers on a specific neighbourhood, I am happy to walk you through it.
Contact Greyden Douglas directly at (604) 218-2289 or book a call to discuss your Vancouver real estate goals.
