Metro Vancouver recorded 2,128 residential transactions in February — a 46% increase from January. But sales remain below last year and well below the 10-year average. Here is why it is too early to call this a recovery.
Every year, someone looks at the January-to-February sales bump and wonders if the market is turning. This year is no different.
There were 2,128 residential resale transactions across the Greater Vancouver Regional District in February, according to HouseSigma data reported by the Vancouver Sun. That is a 46% jump from January. Open houses are busier. Well-priced detached homes with suites are moving fast. Agents I talk to are fielding more calls.
But here is the thing: February is always higher than January. Always. And when you compare those February numbers to last year, or to what a healthy market looks like, the picture is a lot more muted.
The Numbers Tell Two Stories
The headline number — 46% more sales than January — sounds dramatic. The year-over-year number tells a different story entirely.
According to Greater Vancouver Realtors’ February 2026 report, the board recorded 1,648 home sales in February. That is:
- 43% higher than January (normal seasonal pattern)
- 9.8% lower than February 2025
- 28.7% below the 10-year seasonal average of 2,310
The GVR covers a smaller geographical area than HouseSigma’s broader GVRD count, which explains the difference between 1,648 and 2,128. But the direction is the same: up from January, down from last year, and well below what we would expect in a normal February.
Andrew Lis, GVR’s chief economist, put it plainly: “With each passing data point, the pace of sales running well-below long-term averages are no longer a surprise — it’s become the new norm.”
Fraser Valley Tells the Same Story
The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board reported 843 sales in February — a 36% increase from January. But those sales were 38% below the 10-year seasonal average, which is an even bigger gap than Metro Vancouver.
Fraser Valley inventory is stacking up too. Active listings hit 8,344, sitting 51% above the 10-year average. The sales-to-listings ratio is 10%, firmly in buyer’s market territory (balanced is typically 12–20%).
Baldev Gill, CEO of the Fraser Valley board, described it well: “Many households are in a holding pattern right now, waiting for clearer signs that the economy is finding its footing.”
That matches what I am hearing. People want to buy. They are just not sure when.
Prices Are Still Sliding
The monthly uptick in sales has not translated into price gains. Not yet, anyway.
| Area | Property Type | Benchmark Price | YoY Change | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metro Vancouver | All Types | $1,100,300 | -6.8% | -0.1% |
| Metro Vancouver | Detached | $1,835,900 | -8.8% | -0.8% |
| Metro Vancouver | Apartment | $708,200 | -6.8% | +0.5% |
| Metro Vancouver | Townhouse | $1,046,100 | -5.6% | +0.3% |
| Fraser Valley | All Types | $895,100 | -8.6% | -0.2% |
| Fraser Valley | Detached | $1,370,900 | -8.6% | -0.2% |
| Fraser Valley | Apartment | $488,300 | -8.9% | -0.1% |
| Fraser Valley | Townhouse | $770,700 | -7.1% | -0.3% |
Source: GVR February 2026 Statistics, FVREB February 2026 Statistics
Look at those year-over-year numbers. Every property type in both regions is down 5–9% from a year ago. Detached homes in Metro Vancouver are down 8.8%. Fraser Valley apartments are down 8.9%. These are not small corrections.
The one small bright spot: townhouses and apartments in Metro Vancouver ticked up slightly month-over-month. But we are talking 0.3–0.5%, which is statistical noise more than a trend.
One Interesting Signal From the Condo Market
Here is something worth watching. The Vancouver Sun reported that condo listing terminations and expirations — meaning listings that were pulled or expired without selling — averaged about 2,000 per month over the past year. In February, that number dropped to 1,340.
That is a meaningful decline. It could mean sellers are finally pricing realistically rather than testing the water with an ambitious ask, then pulling the listing when nobody bites. If sellers are meeting the market on price, that removes one of the friction points that has been gumming up activity.
I have been saying this for months: in this market, the homes that are priced right on day one are the ones that sell. The cancel-and-relist strategy that worked in a hot market does not work the same way now.
So Is Pent-Up Demand Coming?
Maybe. Lis has been running forecasting models that project roughly 25,000 sales across Metro Vancouver for the full year — about the same as 2025. He noted that actual January and February sales came in slightly ahead of where the model predicted.
“It’s not by a lot,” he said. But it is an interesting early finding, because “it may be that there is actually a little bit more demand out there than the modelling was capturing.”
If that trend continues into spring, it could signal a shift in market sentiment. Could. Spring is when we find out whether this is just seasonal noise or something more.
On the ground, agents are seeing busier open houses and some multiple-offer situations on well-priced properties. Detached homes with suites continue to attract attention — which makes sense, since the rental income helps offset carrying costs in a market where the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate sits at 2.25% and mortgage payments are still a stretch for many households.
But investors remain largely on the sidelines. And until that changes, or until we see several consecutive months of sales above the 10-year average, calling this a turnaround is premature.
What This Means If You Are Buying or Selling
If you are buying: conditions remain in your favour. Inventory is well above average. Prices are still declining year-over-year. You have time and selection. But do not assume this window stays open forever — if spring sales pick up meaningfully, the dynamic could shift. Getting a mortgage pre-approval locked in now puts you in a strong position to move if the right property comes up.
If you are selling: price it right from the start. The data on condo terminations dropping is encouraging — it suggests sellers who price realistically are getting results. Overpricing and hoping to negotiate down is a strategy that leads to stale listings and eventually selling for less than you would have if you had priced correctly on day one.
If you are waiting for a clear signal: you might be waiting a while. Andrew Lis’s models suggest a year that looks a lot like 2025 — not a crash, not a recovery, just a below-average market finding its footing. Sometimes the answer is that there is no dramatic move coming in either direction.
Key Takeaways
- February sales jumped 36–46% from January across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, but this is a normal seasonal pattern — not evidence of a turnaround
- Year-over-year, sales remain 8–10% below 2025 levels and 28–38% below the 10-year seasonal average
- Benchmark prices continue to decline across all property types in both regions, with year-over-year drops of 5–9%
- The drop in condo listing terminations may signal more realistic seller pricing, which could help market activity going forward
- GVR’s forecasting model projects roughly 25,000 sales for 2026, similar to last year, though actual sales are running slightly ahead of model predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Are Vancouver home sales recovering in spring 2026?
Not yet. February sales were up 36–46% from January, but that happens every year as a normal seasonal pattern. Sales remain about 10% below February 2025 and nearly 29% below the 10-year average. GVR’s chief economist Andrew Lis says this pace of below-average sales has become “the new norm.” A sustained recovery would require several months of sales at or above long-term averages.
How much have Vancouver home prices dropped in 2026?
Metro Vancouver’s composite benchmark price is $1,100,300 as of February 2026, down 6.8% from a year ago. Detached homes have dropped 8.8% year-over-year to $1,835,900. Apartments are at $708,200 (down 6.8%) and townhouses at $1,046,100 (down 5.6%). Fraser Valley prices have dropped even further, with apartments down 8.9% year-over-year.
Is now a good time to buy in Metro Vancouver?
Conditions favour buyers more than they have in years. Active listings in Metro Vancouver are 37% above the 10-year seasonal average, and prices are down 5–9% depending on property type. The sales-to-active ratio of 12.6% reflects balanced-to-buyer-friendly conditions. Interest rates have stabilized at 2.25% after seven consecutive cuts. That said, “good time to buy” depends on your personal finances and timeline, not just market conditions.
What is happening in the Fraser Valley housing market?
The Fraser Valley recorded 843 sales in February 2026, up 36% from January but 38% below the 10-year seasonal average. Active listings are at 8,344, 51% above the 10-year average. Benchmark prices range from $488,300 for apartments to $1,370,900 for detached homes, all down 7–9% from a year ago. It is firmly a buyer’s market with a 10% sales-to-listings ratio.
Sources
- Greater Vancouver Realtors — February 2026 Monthly Market Report
- Fraser Valley Real Estate Board — February 2026 Market Report
- Bank of Canada — January 28, 2026 Rate Decision (2.25%)
- Vancouver Sun — “It’s too early to call better home sales a turnaround in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley,” Joanne Lee-Young, March 6, 2026
Data sourced March 9, 2026. Market conditions change frequently. Verify current figures before making financial decisions.
Next Steps: Work with Rain City Properties
If you are watching the market and wondering whether now is the right time to buy or sell, I get it. The data points in multiple directions and the economic uncertainty is real. What I can tell you after 20 years in Vancouver real estate is that the best decisions come from understanding your own situation first, and the market second.
Contact Greyden Douglas directly at (604) 218-2289 or book a call to talk through your options.
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