September 2025 benchmark prices dropped 3.2% year-over-year while active listings surged 36% above the 10-year average. With the sales-to-active ratio at 11.3%, Vancouver is firmly in buyer territory. Here is what the numbers actually mean for your next purchase.
I have been tracking Metro Vancouver real estate data for two decades. In September 2025, the composite benchmark hit $1,142,100, down 3.2% from a year earlier. That was the lowest point in 18 months. And when I started pulling at the thread, the rest of the data told the same story: buyers have not had this much leverage in a long time.
Let me walk you through what is actually happening, what is driving it, and how I think you should use the information.
The September Numbers: A Snapshot of Softness
Greater Vancouver Realtors reported 1,875 residential sales in September 2025. That is technically up 1.2% from September 2024, which sounds fine until you compare it to the 10-year seasonal average. Sales came in 20.1% below that benchmark. One in five transactions that would normally happen in a typical September simply did not materialize.
On the supply side, the picture was the opposite. Active listings climbed to 17,079, a 14.4% increase from September 2024 and a full 36.1% above the 10-year average. New listings came in at 6,527, up 6.2% year-over-year.
More homes available. Fewer people buying them. That math only goes one direction.
Prices by property type
The damage was consistent across the board:
| Property Type | Benchmark (Sep 2025) | Year-over-Year |
|---|---|---|
| Composite | $1,142,100 | -3.2% |
| Detached | $2,693,505 | -4.4% |
| Townhouse | $1,490,617 | -2.7% |
| Apartment (condo) | $1,015,481 | -4.4% |
Source: Greater Vancouver Realtors, September 2025 Statistics
A 4.4% decline on a $2.7 million detached home works out to roughly $120,000 in savings. On a condo just north of a million, it is about $45,000. These are meaningful numbers, especially when you layer them on top of what happened with interest rates.
The Sales-to-Active Ratio: Why 11.3% Matters
If you follow this journal, you know I pay close attention to the sales-to-active listings ratio. It is the single best indicator of where price pressure is heading.
In September 2025, that ratio sat at 11.3%. Here is why that number matters:
- Below 12%: downward price pressure (where we are now)
- 12% to 20%: balanced market
- Above 20%: upward price pressure (seller territory)
At 11.3%, we are not just in buyer territory. We are in the zone where sellers start getting nervous, where listings sit, where price reductions start appearing on day 30, then day 14. I have watched this pattern play out before. In 2018-2019, we hit similar ratios and buyers who acted during that window bought homes that appreciated 15-20% over the following three years.
I am not saying history repeats exactly. I am saying pay attention to ratios, not headlines.
What the Bank of Canada Did to Your Purchasing Power
Here is the part of this story that I think most people are underestimating.
Between early 2024 and January 2026, the Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate seven consecutive times, bringing it from 5.0% down to 2.25%. That is a dramatic shift, and it changed the mortgage qualification math in a way most buyers have not fully processed.
Under the stress test, you qualify at either your contract rate plus 2% or the minimum qualifying rate of 5.25%, whichever is higher. When rates were at 5.0%, you were qualifying at 7.0%. Now, with many lenders offering fixed rates around 4.0-4.5%, you are qualifying at 6.0-6.5%.
The practical effect? Purchasing power has increased roughly 27% compared to late 2023 standards. A household that could qualify for $750,000 in mortgage at peak rates can now qualify for approximately $950,000. That is not a small difference. For many buyers, it is the difference between a dated condo in a secondary location and a move-in-ready home in a neighbourhood they actually want to live in.
And here is the thing: prices have dropped at the same time that your borrowing capacity has expanded. That double benefit is rare. It does not happen often, and it does not last.
Mortgage Pre-Approvals: The 120-Day Insurance Policy
One tactical point I have been pushing with every buyer I work with right now: get your mortgage pre-approval locked in with a 120-to-130-day rate protection.
Why? Because rate stability is not guaranteed. The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% in January 2026, but the statement flagged tariff uncertainty and global trade tensions. If something shifts, rates could move in either direction.
A pre-approval with rate protection gives you 4 months to shop without worrying about rate changes. If rates drop, most lenders will give you the lower rate anyway. If rates rise, you are protected. It costs nothing and removes one of the biggest variables from your decision-making.
I have seen too many buyers lose their ideal property because they waited to get financing sorted until they found a place they liked. In a market where listings are sitting, you have time to be strategic. Use that time to get your financing buttoned up first.
What This Market Feels Like on the Ground
Statistics tell one story. Walking through open houses tells another.
Right now, I am seeing open houses in Point Grey and Kerrisdale that draw 5-8 groups instead of the 25-30 you would have seen two years ago. Offer nights are producing one or two bids, sometimes zero. I had a buyer last month get accepted on a detached home in Dunbar with a subject-to-inspection clause and a closing date 90 days out. The seller did not even counter. Try that in 2022.
Condos are even softer. Units that would have moved in two weeks are sitting for 45-60 days. Price reductions are commonplace. And if you are looking at newer inventory, some developers are quietly offering incentives rather than cutting sticker prices, things like strata fee coverage for the first year or decorating allowances.
The key insight: the data says buyer’s market, and the lived experience on the ground confirms it. This is not a statistical anomaly. You can feel it in every showing.
Who Should Be Paying Attention Right Now
I want to be clear about something. An 18-month low in prices does not mean everyone should rush out and buy a home. The right time to buy depends on your circumstances, not a chart.
That said, here is who I think should be taking this market seriously:
First-time buyers who have been priced out. If you have been watching from the sidelines because the numbers never worked, run them again. Between lower prices and increased borrowing power, the gap may have closed enough to make your move. Start with a pre-approval and see where you actually stand.
Move-up buyers who need more space. The math on a move-up purchase often works in your favour during a soft market. Yes, you sell your current place for less, but you buy the bigger place at a steeper discount. On a move from a $900,000 condo to a $1.8 million townhouse, the dollar savings on the purchase typically exceeds the discount on the sale.
Anyone with a 5-to-10-year hold horizon. Vancouver’s structural housing shortage has not gone anywhere. Population growth, immigration targets, and constrained geography mean that demand will reassert itself. The question is when, not if. If you are buying to hold, this is a favourable entry point.
What I Am Telling Buyers Right Now
I am telling them three things.
First, do not wait for the bottom. Nobody rings a bell when prices hit their lowest point. By the time you are sure the market has bottomed, it has already started recovering and other buyers have started competing again. The goal is not to time the market perfectly. The goal is to buy well in a market that is clearly tilted in your favour.
Second, negotiate hard but be realistic. Sellers in this market are more flexible than they have been in years. But a well-located, well-maintained home in Kitsilano or Main Street is still going to draw interest. The real deals are on properties that have been sitting 30 days or more, where the seller’s expectations have not yet adjusted to reality.
Third, lean on the data. When I sit down with a client, we look at the sales-to-active ratio for the specific property type and neighbourhood they are targeting. City-wide averages are useful, but the market in South Granville does not behave the same as the market in Collingwood. Neighbourhood-level data is where you find your edge.
Key Takeaways
- The Metro Vancouver composite benchmark hit $1,142,100 in September 2025, down 3.2% year-over-year and the lowest point in 18 months
- Active listings surged to 17,079, sitting 36.1% above the 10-year seasonal average, giving buyers the widest selection in years
- The sales-to-active ratio dropped to 11.3%, below the 12% threshold that signals sustained downward price pressure
- Bank of Canada rate cuts from 5.0% to 2.25% have increased purchasing power by approximately 27% since late 2023
- Mortgage pre-approvals with 120-130 day rate protections are essential for locking in current conditions while you search
Frequently Asked Questions
Are Vancouver home prices at an 18-month low?
Yes. According to Greater Vancouver Realtors, the composite residential benchmark price in September 2025 was $1,142,100, representing a 3.2% decline year-over-year. All major property types, detached, townhouse, and apartment, experienced year-over-year price declines ranging from 2.7% to 4.4%.
What does a sales-to-active ratio of 11.3% mean for buyers?
A ratio below 12% is generally considered to signal downward price pressure. At 11.3%, there are far more homes available than there are buyers purchasing, which means sellers compete for buyers rather than the reverse. Practically, this translates to more negotiating power, more time to make decisions, and fewer bidding wars.
How much more can I afford now compared to 2023?
With the Bank of Canada rate at 2.25%, down from 5.0% in early 2024, mortgage qualification thresholds have shifted significantly. Purchasing power has increased approximately 27% compared to late 2023 stress-test standards. A household that qualified for a $750,000 mortgage at peak rates could now qualify for roughly $950,000 at current rates, subject to individual income and debt levels.
Should I lock in a mortgage pre-approval now?
Yes. Most lenders offer rate-hold periods of 120 to 130 days on pre-approvals, which protects you if rates move upward. Since the Bank of Canada flagged tariff uncertainty in its January 2026 statement, rate stability is not guaranteed. Locking in a pre-approval gives you the security to shop confidently without rate risk.
Will prices keep falling in Vancouver?
BCREA’s Q1 2026 Housing Forecast projects modest price growth of about 3% provincially, with sales expected to rebound 12%. My own read is that Metro Vancouver prices will flatten through the first half of 2026 before any meaningful recovery. Further significant declines would require a major economic shock beyond what current data suggests.
Sources
- Greater Vancouver Realtors - September 2025 Monthly Statistics
- Bank of Canada - Overnight Rate Decisions, 2024-2026
- Bank of Canada - Interest Rate Decision, January 28, 2026
- BC Real Estate Association - Q1 2026 Housing Forecast
Data sourced February 2026. Market conditions change frequently. Verify current figures before making financial decisions.
Ready to Make Your Move?
An 18-month price low combined with 27% more borrowing power is not a combination that comes around often. If you have been waiting for the right conditions, the data says they are here.
I work with buyers across Metro Vancouver who want honest, data-driven advice, not sales pressure. If you want to understand what your budget can actually get you in this market, or you want to run the numbers on a specific neighbourhood, let us talk.
Call Greyden Douglas directly at (604) 218-2289 or book a call to discuss your next move.
