Prices are down 5% across the board, inventory is at a 12-year high, and sales have dropped to levels not seen in a generation. Vancouver is in the middle of a real price correction. Here is what the data actually says and how buyers should think about it.
I do not use the word “correction” lightly. In Vancouver real estate, every 3% dip gets called a crash by the media, and every 5% bounce gets called a boom. Most of the time, neither label fits. But what we have been watching unfold over the past 12 to 18 months is different. This is a legitimate price correction, backed by sustained volume declines, a meaningful inventory build, and benchmark drops across every single property type.
If you are a buyer who has been sitting on the fence, this is the article where I walk you through what is actually happening and what it means for your decision.
The Numbers Behind the Correction
Let me start with the sales data, because that is where this correction started.
In November 2025, Metro Vancouver recorded just 1,846 home sales, according to Greater Vancouver Realtors. That figure was 15.4% below November 2024 and a full 20.6% below the 10-year seasonal average. The month before, October 2025, saw 2,255 transactions, itself a 14.3% annual decline.
These are not blips. We have had weak month after weak month, with no meaningful bounce despite the Bank of Canada cutting rates seven times through 2025.
On the supply side, active listings have swelled to levels we have not seen in over a decade. As of late 2025, there were approximately 16,393 active listings on the MLS across Metro Vancouver. That is a 13.2% increase year-over-year and 35.9% above the 10-year seasonal average. You have to go back to 2012 to find inventory this high.
When you have significantly fewer sales and significantly more listings, prices move. That is exactly what has happened.
Where Prices Stand: The December 2025 Benchmarks
Greater Vancouver Realtors’ December 2025 benchmarks tell the story clearly:
| Property Type | Benchmark Price (Dec 2025) | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Detached | $1,879,800 | -5.3% |
| Townhouse | $1,056,600 | -5.0% |
| Apartment (condo) | $710,000 | -5.3% |
Source: Greater Vancouver Realtors, December 2025 Monthly Summary
On a $1.88 million detached home, 5.3% is roughly $100,000. On a condo, it is about $37,500. These are real, tangible savings for anyone buying today versus a year ago.
And the market structure confirms the direction. The sales-to-active-listings ratio sits at approximately 14.2%. Anything below 12% is widely considered a buyer’s market; 12% to 20% is balanced. We are at the low end of balanced territory, tipping toward outright buyer-favourable conditions depending on the neighbourhood and property type.
Why This Correction Feels Different
I have sold through corrections before. The brief one in 2018-2019 after the foreign buyer tax changes. The sharper one in 2008-2009 during the financial crisis. This one has its own character, and I think it is important to understand why.
It is slow and grinding, not sharp and panicked. Sellers are not distressed. They are not forced to sell at fire-sale prices. They are simply finding that the price they think their home is worth no longer matches what buyers are willing to pay. Listings sit for 60, 90, 120 days. Price reductions happen quietly. The correction is playing out in days on market and negotiation dynamics rather than dramatic monthly price swings.
Buyers are cautious, not absent. People want to buy homes in Vancouver. The population is growing, rental costs are painful, and homeownership remains a goal for most working families. But the combination of tariff uncertainty, economic anxiety, and a nagging sense that prices might drop further has made people hesitant. They are out there looking. They are just slow to pull the trigger.
The interest rate cycle has not rescued the market. This is the one that surprises people. The Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate to 2.25% through a series of seven reductions in 2025, and then held steady at that level in January 2026. Variable-rate borrowers on a $700,000 mortgage have saved roughly $90 per month compared to peak rates. That helps at the margins, but it has not been enough to spark a buying frenzy. The savings are modest relative to Vancouver’s overall cost of ownership.
The Affordability Context
I want to put these price drops in proper context, because a 5% decline sounds meaningful until you look at what Vancouver housing still costs relative to what people earn.
According to multiple affordability studies, ownership costs for a benchmark property in Metro Vancouver still consume approximately 89.2% of median household income. For detached homes, that figure climbs to a staggering 125.9%. In plain English: the typical household in Vancouver cannot afford the typical detached home without either a massive down payment, help from family, or a second income that is well above average.
A 5% correction is a start. It is not a revolution. If you are waiting for detached homes to become affordable for median-income earners, you will be waiting a very long time. That is not the market we live in. But the correction has moved the needle enough that buyers who were close to qualifying, or who had been priced out of their preferred neighbourhood by $50,000 to $100,000, are finding that the math works now.
What This Means for Different Types of Buyers
First-Time Buyers
The correction has two direct benefits for you. First, the obvious one: lower prices mean a smaller mortgage. On a $710,000 condo that was $750,000 a year ago, you are looking at roughly $40,000 less in debt. At current rates, that translates to about $230 less per month.
Second, and this matters just as much: you have time. In a hot market, you see a place on Thursday, you need to write an offer by Monday, and you are competing with six other buyers. Right now, you can tour a place, think about it for a week, get a proper inspection done, and negotiate on price. That is how buying a home should work. I wrote about this more broadly in my complete buyer’s guide, and the conditions I described there have only gotten better.
Move-Up Buyers
The correction cuts both ways for you. Yes, your current home is worth less than it was last year. But the home you are moving up to is also worth less, and the dollar discount on the more expensive property is larger in absolute terms. If your current condo dropped $37,000 and the Kitsilano townhouse you want dropped $50,000, you are actually $13,000 better off on a net basis.
The key is not to fixate on what your current home “should” be worth. That is a psychological trap. Focus on the spread between your sale price and your purchase price. In a correction, the spread almost always favours the move-up buyer. If you are thinking about this kind of transition, I have written a more detailed piece on buying first vs. selling first that lays out the strategy.
Investors and Long-Term Holders
If you are buying to hold for seven to ten years, this correction is handing you a better entry point than you have had since 2019. Rental demand in Vancouver is not weakening. The city is not building enough housing to meet population growth. The structural supply shortage that has driven Vancouver prices for decades is still very much intact.
BCREA’s Q1 2026 Housing Forecast projects approximately 4% price growth across BC in 2026. If that holds, buying at a 5% discount and then riding a 4% recovery puts you in a strong position within 12 to 18 months, before you even account for rental income or the mortgage pay-down.
The Neighbourhoods Where Correction Hits Hardest
Not every pocket of Metro Vancouver is correcting equally. In my daily work on the west side, I am seeing the biggest buyer opportunities in:
Condos in secondary locations. Buildings that are not on the waterfront, not next to transit, and not in the most desirable pockets of Mount Pleasant or False Creek are sitting. Sellers in these units are the most motivated.
Overbuilt new condo markets. Areas with heavy presale completions are experiencing supply pressure that magnifies the correction. If you are open to buying resale in a building that also has unsold developer inventory, you have enormous leverage.
Detached homes priced above $2.5 million. The luxury end is soft. Fewer foreign buyers, fewer tech-money buyers flush with stock gains, and a general reluctance to deploy large amounts of capital in uncertain times. If you have been eyeing Dunbar, Point Grey, or Shaughnessy, your dollar goes further than it has in years.
Conversely, well-priced entry-level detached homes in the east side and well-located two-bedroom condos in prime areas are still drawing reasonable interest. The correction is real, but it is not uniform.
How to Buy Smart During a Correction
I have a few pieces of practical advice for buyers right now.
Do not try to time the absolute bottom. Nobody rings a bell at the bottom of a real estate correction. By the time you are confident prices have stopped falling, other buyers will have reached the same conclusion and competition will return. Buy when you find the right property at a price that works for your budget and hold horizon.
Use subjects aggressively. This market allows you to include subject-to-financing, subject-to-inspection, and even subject-to-sale conditions in your offers. Do it. Protect yourself. In 2021, subjects were a luxury most buyers could not afford. Right now, they are standard practice.
Negotiate on more than just price. Ask for completion date flexibility. Ask for included appliances or furniture. Ask for a home warranty. Ask for the seller to cover the property transfer tax top-up. When properties are sitting for 60+ days, sellers are often more willing to give on terms than on headline price because it is less visible.
Get your financing locked in before you start shopping. With rates stable at 2.25% on the overnight and competitive fixed-rate products available, pre-approval gives you certainty and credibility. Sellers take pre-approved buyers more seriously, even in a soft market.
What Happens Next
I am not going to pretend I can predict the market with certainty. But here is my honest read.
BCREA forecasts modest price recovery in 2026, around 4% provincially. I think Metro Vancouver will underperform that slightly in the first half of the year and potentially outperform it in the second half, especially if trade tensions ease and buyer confidence returns. The correction is likely near its floor, but I do not expect a sharp V-shaped bounce. This market is going to grind sideways for a while before it starts climbing again.
For buyers, that means you have a window measured in months, not weeks. There is no rush to buy this weekend, but there is also no reason to wait another year hoping for a dramatically better deal. The conditions are favourable now. Use them.
Key Takeaways
- Vancouver home prices are down approximately 5% across all property types, with detached homes, condos, and townhouses all showing similar declines
- Active listings are at their highest level since 2012, giving buyers unprecedented selection and negotiating power
- Sales volumes remain 15-20% below historical averages, keeping the market firmly in buyer-friendly territory
- The correction is slow and grinding rather than sharp, meaning well-priced properties in prime locations still attract interest
- BCREA projects 4% price growth for 2026, suggesting the correction floor may be near
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Vancouver’s housing market in a correction?
Yes. By any standard definition, Vancouver is in a price correction. Benchmark prices are down 5% or more year-over-year across all residential property types, according to GVR’s December 2025 data. Active listings are at their highest level since 2012, and sales volumes are running 15-20% below the 10-year average. This is not a minor wobble. It is a sustained, data-backed price adjustment.
How much have Vancouver home prices dropped?
As of December 2025, GVR benchmarks show detached homes down 5.3% year-over-year to $1,879,800, condos down 5.3% to $710,000, and townhouses down 5.0% to $1,056,600. In dollar terms, that represents roughly $100,000 off a detached home and about $37,500 off a typical condo compared to December 2024 prices.
Will Vancouver home prices keep falling in 2026?
Unlikely to fall significantly further, based on current forecasts. BCREA’s Q1 2026 Housing Forecast projects approximately 4% price growth across BC for 2026. My own expectation is that Metro Vancouver prices will be roughly flat through the first half of the year, with a modest recovery possible in the second half as buyer confidence returns.
Should I buy now or wait for prices to drop more?
If you are buying a home to live in for five or more years, the current market offers a combination of lower prices, high inventory, strong negotiating power, and stable borrowing costs that is rare in Vancouver. Waiting for a marginally lower price risks competing with more buyers when sentiment shifts. The best time to buy is when the right property at a workable price meets your financial readiness, and those conditions exist now.
How do lower interest rates affect this correction?
The Bank of Canada has reduced its overnight rate to 2.25%, saving variable-rate borrowers roughly $90 per month on a $700,000 mortgage compared to peak rates. While this has not been enough to spark a buying frenzy, it has stabilized carrying costs and improved qualification thresholds for buyers. Rate stability at this level makes budgeting more predictable than it has been in years.
Sources
- Greater Vancouver Realtors - December 2025 Monthly Summary and Statistics
- BC Real Estate Association - Q1 2026 Housing Forecast Update
- Bank of Canada - Interest Rate Decision, January 2026
Data sourced February 2026. Market conditions change frequently. Verify current figures before making financial decisions.
Ready to Take Advantage of the Correction?
A correction is an opportunity, but only if you know how to use it. Which neighbourhoods have the most room to negotiate? Where are the hidden deals that have not been picked over? What does a smart offer look like in this market? Those are the questions I answer for my clients every day.
I have been selling Vancouver real estate for 20 years, through every cycle. If you want to understand what this correction means for your specific situation, whether you are a first-time buyer, a move-up buyer, or an investor, I am happy to walk you through the numbers.
Call Greyden Douglas directly at (604) 218-2289 or book a call to talk about your next move.
