Summary: Analysis of early spring 2026 listing patterns in Metro Vancouver. February 2026 GVR data shows 4,734 new listings against just 1,648 sales, active inventory at 13,545 (37% above 10-year average), and composite benchmark at $1,100,300 (-6.8% YoY). Sales-to-active ratio of 12.6% signals buyer-favourable conditions heading into spring.
Spring listings are arriving into a market with 13,545 active homes for sale — 37% above the 10-year average. With sales still running nearly 29% below normal and benchmark prices down 6.8% year-over-year, here is what the early data says about the season ahead.
Spring in Vancouver means cherry blossoms, longer evenings, and — if you work in real estate — the first real signal of what the year’s market is going to look like. The early returns for 2026 are in, and they’re telling a story that I think a lot of people aren’t fully absorbing yet.
We have more homes for sale right now than at any point in the last three years. Buyers, meanwhile, are sitting on their hands. And prices are quietly drifting lower month after month. Let me walk through what I’m seeing in the early spring data and what it means if you’re thinking about buying or selling this year.
The Inventory Picture: Sellers Are Showing Up, Buyers Aren’t
The single most important number heading into spring is active inventory. According to GVR’s February 2026 report, there are 13,545 homes for sale across Metro Vancouver. That’s 6.3% more than February 2025 and a full 37% above the 10-year seasonal average of 9,886.
To put that in plain terms: there are roughly 3,600 more homes on the market than you’d normally see this time of year.
February saw 4,734 new listings hit the MLS, which was actually down 6.4% from last February’s 5,057. So while sellers aren’t listing quite as aggressively as last year, the homes that are already sitting unsold keep piling up. GVR’s chief economist Andrew Lis noted that “home sellers appear less eager to list their homes relative to last year with new listings down about seven percent, mostly driven by fewer listings in the apartment segment.”
That’s a useful detail. Condo owners seem to be holding back, likely because they know the market isn’t in their favour right now. Detached and townhouse owners are still listing, though — and the result is a growing pool of inventory with too few buyers to absorb it.
Sales: Still Running Well Below Normal
February brought 1,648 residential sales across Metro Vancouver. That’s down 9.8% from February 2025’s 1,827 and sits 28.7% below the 10-year seasonal average.
Here’s how that breaks down by property type:
| Property Type | Feb 2026 Sales | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Detached | 427 | -10.5% |
| Apartment | 824 | -15.6% |
| Townhouse/Attached | 387 | +7.8% |
Source: Greater Vancouver Realtors, February 2026 Statistics
Apartments took the biggest hit — down nearly 16% year-over-year. That tracks with what I’m hearing from buyers. There’s real hesitation around condos right now: rising strata fees, a glut of new-build inventory, and the sense that prices haven’t finished falling. Townhouses, on the other hand, saw a 7.8% bump. Families who need space but can’t afford $1.8 million for a detached home are gravitating to that middle ground.
As Lis put it in the GVR release, the pace of sales running below long-term averages “has become the norm.” That’s a loaded statement from a chief economist. When someone whose job it is to put a measured spin on things essentially says “get used to this,” I think it’s worth paying attention.
Prices: Still Sliding, but the Pace Is Uneven
February’s MLS Home Price Index benchmarks show declines across every property type compared to a year ago:
| Property Type | Feb 2026 Benchmark | Year-over-Year | Month-over-Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Composite (all types) | $1,100,300 | -6.8% | -0.1% |
| Detached | $1,835,900 | -8.8% | -0.8% |
| Townhouse/Attached | $1,046,100 | -5.6% | +0.3% |
| Apartment/Condo | $708,200 | -6.8% | +0.5% |
Source: Greater Vancouver Realtors, February 2026 Statistics
The year-over-year numbers are significant. A detached home benchmark down 8.8% means a home worth $2 million last February would be priced around $1.824 million today. On a mortgage, that’s a meaningful difference.
But here’s where it gets interesting month-over-month. Townhouses ticked up 0.3% and condos rose 0.5% from January. Detached homes, meanwhile, fell another 0.8%. My read: the lower price segments are finding floors faster than the high end. That makes sense when you think about affordability — a $708,000 condo with a 2.25% Bank of Canada rate is within reach for more buyers than at any point in the last two years.
The Sales-to-Active Ratio: What It Actually Tells Us
This ratio is the closest thing we have to a real-time thermometer for market pressure. When it drops below 12%, prices tend to soften. Above 20%, prices tend to rise. February’s reading: 12.6% overall.
But the overall number hides some important variation:
- Detached homes: 9% — firmly in buyer’s market territory
- Attached/Townhouses: 16.6% — balanced, leaning toward sellers
- Apartments: 14.1% — balanced
If you’re shopping for a detached home, you have more leverage right now than at any point since roughly 2019. Townhouse buyers have less room to negotiate — there’s more competition in that segment because it’s where demand is concentrating.
The Rate Picture: Stability, but No Relief
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on January 28, and most economists expect another hold when the next decision comes on March 18. The Bank’s statement pointed to modest GDP growth of 1.1% for 2026 and inflation sitting near the 2% target.
For buyers, this means mortgage rates are likely staying roughly where they are for at least the next few months. Five-year fixed rates are hovering in the low-to-mid 4% range. That’s better than the 5-6% we saw in 2023-2024, but it’s not the kind of dramatic rate cut that gets people off the fence.
I think the rate story this spring is actually less about where rates are and more about where they aren’t going. There was a stretch last year where buyers were waiting for 3% or even sub-3% five-year rates. That hasn’t materialized, and with the Bank signalling a cautious hold, it probably won’t anytime soon. At some point, the “wait for lower rates” crowd has to decide whether they’re waiting for something that’s already behind us.
The Wild Card: Trade Uncertainty
You can’t talk about the 2026 housing market without talking about tariffs. U.S. trade policy has created a fog over the Canadian economy that’s hard to see through, and it’s affecting buyer confidence in ways that don’t always show up in the data.
CREA’s latest forecast acknowledged this directly, projecting 494,512 national home sales in 2026 — a 5.1% increase from 2025, but a downgrade from earlier projections. Their read: “the economic uncertainty resulting from U.S. tariff threats” was the primary drag on 2025, and those headwinds haven’t fully cleared.
In Vancouver specifically, we’re somewhat insulated because our economy isn’t as export-dependent as, say, Ontario’s manufacturing sector. But confidence is contagious, and when national headlines say “recession risk,” it makes Vancouver buyers cautious too. I’ve had conversations with three different buyers in the last two weeks who specifically mentioned tariff uncertainty as a reason they’re holding off. That’s anecdotal, but it’s consistent with the sales numbers.
What the Forecasts Say About Spring and Beyond
Let me lay out what the major forecasting bodies are projecting, because the range of opinion tells you something about how uncertain things are:
BCREA (Q1 2026 Housing Forecast): BC MLS sales projected to rise 12% to 78,690 units in 2026, with the average BC home price rising about 3% to $982,800. They’re calling it “a slow return to normal” and expect pent-up demand to release as the year progresses.
Royal LePage (2026 National Forecast): Greater Vancouver’s aggregate home price forecast to fall 3.5% year-over-year by Q4 2026. Detached homes expected to decline 5%, condos down 3%. They’re “cautiously optimistic” about more transactions but not about prices.
CMHC (Housing Market Outlook 2026): Moderate resale recovery, but concentrated in areas closer to the city centre. Condo presales have stalled badly, and more project cancellations or delays are expected through the year.
So the consensus, roughly: sales activity picks up somewhat from 2025’s depressed levels, but prices continue to slip. That’s not a crash scenario. It’s a grind lower, which in some ways is harder to navigate because there’s no obvious capitulation moment.
What This Means for Buyers This Spring
If you’ve been watching the market for the past year waiting for “the right time,” here’s my honest take: the conditions are about as buyer-friendly as they’ve been in years, especially for detached homes. You have:
- More inventory than at any point since 2019 (13,545 active listings, 37% above normal)
- Year-over-year price declines across every property type (6.8% composite)
- A 9% sales-to-active ratio for detached homes, meaning sellers need to compete for your attention
- Stable rates at 2.25%, with no sign of upward movement
The risk of waiting longer? If BCREA’s forecast of a 12% sales increase plays out over spring and summer, competition will pick up and some of the leverage you have today will fade. Markets don’t stay this quiet forever — and when activity returns, it tends to return faster than people expect.
That said, I’m not in the business of rushing anyone. If the tariff situation genuinely keeps you up at night, or if you’re not sure about your job security, those are legitimate reasons to wait. The data favours buying, but your personal situation matters more than any chart.
What This Means for Sellers This Spring
Selling into this market requires a different approach than what worked in 2021 or 2022. Here’s what I’d tell any client listing this spring:
Price it right from day one. With 13,545 homes competing for attention, the “list high and see what happens” approach is a recipe for a stale listing. The homes I’m seeing sell are priced at or slightly below current comparable sales. Overpriced listings are sitting 60-90 days and then taking price cuts anyway.
Expect negotiation. A 12.6% sales-to-active ratio means buyers have options. Subject-to-inspection, subject-to-financing, and even subject-to-sale conditions are all back on the table. If you’re coming from the 2021 mindset where offers were subject-free, you need to recalibrate.
Townhouse sellers have more leverage. With a 16.6% sales-to-active ratio and year-over-year sales actually up 7.8%, the townhouse segment is the closest thing to a balanced market right now. If you own a well-located townhouse, you’re in a stronger position than detached or condo sellers.
Key Takeaways
- Active inventory sits at 13,545, a full 37% above the 10-year average — the most buyer-friendly supply level in years
- Sales are running 28.7% below the 10-year seasonal average, with apartments (-15.6% YoY) weakest and townhouses (+7.8% YoY) the sole bright spot
- Benchmark prices are down across the board: composite -6.8%, detached -8.8%, condos -6.8%, townhouses -5.6% year-over-year
- The sales-to-active ratio of 9% for detached homes signals strong buyer leverage; townhouses at 16.6% are closer to balanced
- Multiple forecasters (BCREA, Royal LePage, CMHC) expect activity to pick up through 2026 but prices to remain flat or drift lower
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Vancouver a buyer’s market or seller’s market in spring 2026?
It depends on the property type. Detached homes are in buyer’s market territory with a 9% sales-to-active ratio. Townhouses sit in balanced conditions at 16.6%. Apartments are balanced at 14.1%. Overall, the market favours buyers more than it has in several years, with 13,545 active listings sitting 37% above the 10-year seasonal average.
Will Vancouver home prices go up or down in spring 2026?
Most major forecasters expect prices to remain flat or decline modestly through 2026. Royal LePage projects a 3.5% aggregate decline by Q4 2026. BCREA expects the provincial average to rise roughly 3%, driven by higher-priced Lower Mainland sales catching up in volume. Month-over-month, condos and townhouses showed slight increases from January to February, while detached homes fell 0.8%.
Should I wait to buy a home in Vancouver until rates drop more?
The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% since December 2025 and is widely expected to hold at the March 18, 2026 decision. Further cuts are not guaranteed. Meanwhile, inventory is high and competition is low. Waiting for significantly lower rates means potentially buying into a market with more competition if pent-up demand releases. The math on affordability is worth running now rather than assuming rates will be meaningfully lower later.
How long are homes sitting on the market in Vancouver right now?
With a sales-to-active ratio of 12.6% overall and just 9% for detached homes, many properties are sitting longer than sellers expect. The imbalance between 4,734 new listings and 1,648 sales in February means roughly two homes are being listed for every one that sells. Well-priced homes in strong locations still move, but overpriced listings can linger for 60-90 days or more.
Sources
- Greater Vancouver Realtors — February 2026 Monthly Market Report
- Greater Vancouver Realtors February 2026 Statistics (Vancouver New Condos)
- Bank of Canada — January 28, 2026 Rate Decision
- Bank of Canada — March 18, 2026 Rate Announcement Schedule
- BCREA — 2026 Q1 Housing Forecast: A Slow Return to Normal
- Royal LePage — Canada’s Housing Market Poised for a Reset in 2026
- CREA — 2026 Resale Housing Market Forecast Update
- CMHC — Housing Market Outlook 2026
Data sourced March 12, 2026. Market conditions change frequently. Verify current figures before making financial decisions.
Next Steps: Work with Rain City Properties
If you’re weighing a spring purchase or thinking about listing, the numbers above tell only part of the story. Every neighbourhood and every property type has its own dynamics right now, and what’s happening in the aggregate doesn’t always match what’s happening on your specific street.
I’ve been working in Vancouver real estate for 20 years, and this is one of the more interesting spring markets I can remember — lots of opportunity if you know where to look, but also real risk if you misread the conditions. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just trying to figure out what your property is worth in this market, I’m happy to walk through the data with you.
Contact Greyden Douglas directly at (604) 218-2289 or book a call to discuss your Vancouver real estate goals.
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