Vancouver Real Estate Market Forecast 2026: Prices, Rates & What to Expect

I’ve been selling real estate in Vancouver for 20 years, and I can count on one hand the number of times the market has felt like it does right now. Prices are down. Inventory is way up. Sales have slowed to levels we haven’t seen in years. And yet, rates are lower than they’ve been since 2022.

It’s a strange moment. Buyers have more leverage than they’ve had in a decade. Sellers who need to move are competing against 12,000+ other listings. And builders are doing math on R1-1 lots while watching land values soften.

Here’s what the numbers actually say about Vancouver real estate in 2026, and what I think it means if you’re buying, selling, or sitting on a property wondering what to do.

Where Prices Stand Right Now

According to Greater Vancouver Realtors’ January 2026 report, the composite benchmark price for Metro Vancouver hit $1,101,900. That’s down 5.7% year-over-year. To put that in dollar terms, the typical home is worth about $66,000 less than it was in January 2025.

Here’s how that breaks down by property type:

Detached homes are taking the biggest hit. The benchmark for a detached home in Greater Vancouver is $1,850,800, down 7.3% from a year ago. That said, detached prices vary wildly by neighbourhood. A lot in Kitsilano with R1-1 multiplex potential holds value differently than a 1970s rancher in the suburbs.

Condos and apartments have been more resilient but are still softening. The benchmark sits at $704,600, down 5.9% year-over-year. The condo market has a specific problem: there’s a wave of presale completions landing in 2026, and some buyers who committed at 2022 prices are struggling to close. That means more inventory entering a market that’s already oversupplied.

Townhomes fall somewhere in between. They’ve held up better than detached and condos in most areas, partly because they hit a sweet spot for families who can’t afford detached but want ground-level living.

Interest Rates: The Bank of Canada Picture

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on January 28, 2026. After aggressive cuts through 2024 and 2025 (the rate was 5.00% at one point), the BoC has shifted to a wait-and-see posture.

What does that mean for mortgages?

• 5-year fixed rates are currently between 3.89% and 4.50%, depending on the lender, your down payment, and whether the mortgage is insured. By historical standards, these are reasonable rates. By 2021-2022 standards, they feel high. Context matters.
• Variable rates are around prime minus something, with prime sitting at 4.45%. Variable holders have been rewarded over the past year as the BoC cut rates, but the easy gains are behind us.
• Where rates go from here: RBC, CIBC, and BMO all expect the BoC to hold at 2.25% for most of 2026. There’s a possibility of a small hike to 2.50% or 2.75% if inflation resurfaces, but no one is predicting another rate-cutting cycle soon.

For a deeper dive on how rates are affecting affordability and qualification, I wrote about this in our interest rates and the Vancouver market article.

The Inventory Situation: Why It’s a Buyers’ Market

This is the number that matters most right now. The same GVR January report shows 12,628 active listings on the system. That’s up 9.9% from a year ago and 38% above the 10-year seasonal average. That’s a lot of homes sitting unsold.

Meanwhile, only 1,107 homes sold in January 2026. That’s down 28.7% from January 2025 and roughly 31% below the 10-year seasonal average. Let that sink in: almost 30% fewer sales year-over-year, while listings grew by 10%.

The result is a sales-to-active ratio of 9.1%. In our market, anything below 12% is considered a buyers’ market. Anything above 20% is a sellers’ market. At 9.1%, we’re firmly in buyers’ territory and getting closer to levels that put serious downward pressure on prices.

What I’m seeing on the ground matches the data. Open houses are quieter. Offers are coming in below asking. Properties that would have sold in a weekend two years ago are sitting for 30, 60, sometimes 90+ days. I had a client list a well-priced West Side detached in November and it took until late January to get a firm offer. That wouldn’t have happened in 2022.

What Happened in 2025 (And Why 2026 Started Slow)

If 2025 was supposed to be the year lower rates brought buyers flooding back, it didn’t happen. Sales volume across Greater Vancouver was the lowest in roughly 20 years. The rate cuts helped with qualification, but they didn’t overcome the affordability problem or the general uncertainty that’s kept many buyers on the sidelines.

Several things contributed:

1. Population growth slowed. Federal immigration targets were reduced, and net migration to BC dropped. Fewer new arrivals means less demand pressure.
2. The spec tax and vacancy tax stuck. These policies reduced speculative buying, especially in the condo market.
3. Buyers waited. With prices softening and rates falling, many buyers figured “why rush?” That logic became self-reinforcing: the more people waited, the softer the market got.
4. Presale completions created inventory. Projects that launched in 2021-2022 are completing now, adding supply at exactly the wrong time.

2026 is inheriting all of these dynamics.

The Multiplex Factor: Bill 44 and Land Values

Here’s something most market forecasts don’t cover, but it matters a lot for Vancouver homeowners: R1-1 zoning is reshaping how builders evaluate single-family lots.

Under Bill 44 and Vancouver’s R1-1 District Schedule, most former single-family lots can now hold 3-8 units. That creates a “density premium” on land. A builder looking at a 50-foot lot isn’t thinking about one house anymore. They’re running numbers on a fourplex or sixplex.

In a rising market, this premium can be significant. 20-40% above what the lot would fetch as a single-family teardown. But in a softening market like 2026, the math is more nuanced:

• Construction costs haven’t dropped. Labour and materials are still expensive. Builders need land to be cheaper to make the numbers work.
• Builder activity is slowing. I’m still getting calls from my builder network, but they’re more selective. They want clean lots with lane access, good frontage, and motivated sellers.
• The premium still exists, just smaller. A multiplex-eligible lot on the West Side still commands more than a non-development lot. But the gap has narrowed compared to 2024.

If you’re a homeowner thinking about selling to a builder, the timing conversation is more complex than “wait for the market to recover.” Builder demand and residential demand don’t always move in sync. For more on this, see our R1-1 multiplex zoning guide and our guide on how to sell land to multiplex developers.

Neighbourhood Hot Spots (and Cold Spots)

Not all of Vancouver is experiencing the same market. Here’s what I’m seeing across different areas:

Holding up relatively well:

• Cambie Corridor — Transit-oriented, high builder interest, steady demand from families
• Kitsilano — West Side lifestyle demand keeps a floor under prices, even if it’s lower than peak
• Mount Pleasant — Broadway Subway effect continues to support values, especially for development-eligible lots

Under more pressure:

• Downtown condos — Inventory is heavy, especially 1-bedrooms. Investors are listing, and renters are finding better deals
• Suburban detached — Larger homes in South Vancouver and areas far from transit are seeing steeper corrections
• Presale-heavy areas — Wherever there’s a cluster of new completions, resale is struggling

The wildcard:

• East Van multiplex plays — Areas like Hastings-Sunrise and Grandview-Woodland have cheaper land, good builder interest, and R1-1 upside. But the pool of builders willing to take on East Side projects at current costs is limited.

Buyers: What This Means for You

If you’ve been waiting for a better time to buy in Vancouver, this is one. I’m not saying it’s the bottom. I have no idea where the bottom is, and anyone who claims to know is guessing. But the conditions are clearly in your favour:

• You have choice. 12,600+ listings means you can compare, negotiate, and walk away from anything that doesn’t meet your standards.
• You have time. Properties are sitting. You can do proper due diligence without feeling rushed.
• You have leverage. Sellers are accepting conditions again. Subject-to-inspection, subject-to-financing, even subject-to-sale in some cases. That was unthinkable in 2022.
• Rates are decent. A 5-year fixed at 3.89% on an insured mortgage is workable for most qualified buyers.

Our 2026 buyers guide has more specific strategies for navigating offers in this market.

Sellers: What This Means for You

Selling in early 2026 requires a different approach than what worked even a year ago. Some honest advice:

Price sharply from day one. Overpricing and “testing the market” is a losing strategy right now. Properties that sit get stale, and stale listings sell for less. I’d rather price a home 2% below what you think it’s worth and create competition than price 5% above and chase the market down.

Make your listing stand out. With this much inventory, presentation matters more than it has in years. Professional staging, quality photography, and a clear value proposition are not optional.

Know your competition. Before you list, look at every comparable active listing in your area. You’re not just competing with sold comparables. You’re competing with 12,000+ active listings.

Consider the builder angle. If your property has R1-1 multiplex potential, a builder offer might exceed what the residential market would pay, even in a down market. Not every lot qualifies, but if yours does, that’s a conversation worth having.

More on pricing strategy and timing in our 2026 sellers guide and our piece on timing the market.

My Honest Take on Where This Goes

I’ll give you my read, understanding that I could be completely wrong.

I think prices stay flat to slightly down through the first half of 2026. The inventory situation is too heavy and sales volume too low for prices to recover quickly. BCREA’s Q1 2026 Housing Forecast projects 3% average price growth by year-end, but as BCREA themselves note, that’s largely a “composition effect” — expensive markets like Vancouver seeing sales recover faster than cheaper areas, pulling the average up rather than reflecting broad-based appreciation.

The second half of the year could look different if:

• The BoC holds rates steady and buyers gain confidence that we’re near the bottom
• Federal policy changes bring back some immigration demand
• Inventory starts to get absorbed and the sales-to-active ratio climbs back above 12%

What I don’t see happening is a return to the 2021-2022 frenzy. That was driven by pandemic economics, ultra-low rates, and speculation. Those conditions aren’t coming back.

For most people, the right move depends on your personal situation, not market timing. If you need to buy, buy when the right property comes up at a price that works for you. If you need to sell, price correctly and market aggressively. If you can wait, wait, but don’t assume waiting guarantees a better outcome.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Vancouver home prices go up or down in 2026?

Early 2026 data shows prices down 5.7% year-over-year, with continued downward pressure from high inventory (12,600+ listings) and low sales volume (1,107 in January, down 28.7% YoY). BCREA forecasts a potential 3% average price increase later in the year, but most analysts expect flat to slightly declining prices through mid-2026.

What is the Bank of Canada interest rate in 2026?

The Bank of Canada policy rate is 2.25% as of January 2026. Major banks (RBC, CIBC, BMO) expect it to hold at 2.25% for most of the year. 5-year fixed mortgage rates range from 3.89-4.50%, and variable rates are based on prime at 4.45%.

Is 2026 a good time to buy a home in Vancouver?

For qualified buyers, 2026 offers conditions not seen in years: 12,600+ active listings (10% more than last year), negotiating leverage, and mortgage rates below 4% for insured borrowers. The sales-to-active ratio of 9.1% means buyers can take their time and negotiate from a position of strength. Whether it’s “the bottom” is impossible to know.

What is the average house price in Vancouver 2026?

The GVR composite benchmark for Greater Vancouver is $1,101,900 as of January 2026. Detached homes are benchmarked at $1,850,800 (down 7.3% YoY), condos at $704,600 (down 5.9% YoY). Detached homes are seeing the largest dollar-value and percentage corrections.

How is the Vancouver condo market in 2026?

The condo market is soft. Benchmark condo price is $704,600 (down 5.9% YoY), with heavy inventory especially in downtown and presale-completion areas. New project completions from 2022-era launches are adding supply. One-bedroom condos in downtown are particularly affected by investor selling and rental competition.

Will lower interest rates help Vancouver real estate in 2026?

Rates have already come down significantly from the 5.00% peak. The BoC rate at 2.25% has improved mortgage qualification, but it hasn’t been enough to offset high prices, reduced immigration, and buyer hesitation. Further cuts are unlikely in 2026. The rate relief is already baked in.

Sources

• Greater Vancouver Realtors - Monthly Statistics, January 2026
• Bank of Canada - Interest Rate Announcement, January 28, 2026
• BCREA - Q1 2026 Housing Forecast Update

Data sourced February 2026. Market conditions change frequently. Verify current figures before making financial decisions.

Let’s Talk About Your Situation

Market forecasts are useful for context, but real estate decisions are personal. Whether you’re a buyer looking to take advantage of current conditions, a seller trying to figure out pricing strategy, or a homeowner wondering what your R1-1 lot is worth to builders, the specifics of your situation matter more than any headline.

I’ve been through multiple market cycles in Vancouver since 2006. The current one favours patience, preparation, and working with someone who knows the local data at a street-by-street level.

Contact Greyden Douglas directly at (604) 218-2289 or book a call to discuss your Vancouver real estate goals.